Gitau Warigi
27 August 2008
analysis
Although it was reasonable to assume Zambian authorities would take precautions in the event of President Levy Mwanawasa's leaving hospital alive but incapacitated, the topic was strangely treated as taboo ever since he suffered a stroke in June and was hospitalised in Paris.
In the event, the President died without getting out of his coma which has brought the question of who will succeed him to centre-stage.
Sensitive topic
Deputy Minister for Local Government Ben Tetamashimba had provoked harsh reprimands in Zambian political circles when he suggested that the succession question be discussed in light of Mwanawasa's hospitalisation. Veteran politician and former cabinet minister Vernon Mwaanga later added his voice even as the government treated the sensitive topic as one that could be wished away through prayers.
The President had a history of ill health, including a previous stroke prior to being elected President. This was an issue anyway which his main opponent Michael Sata had introduced in the election campaign of 2006, but perhaps in a way voters felt was in bad taste.
Yet, even as Tetamashimba got vilified for his indiscreet statement, there was a point where he was right on the hypocrisy being exhibited in the higher echelons of the government and the ruling Movement for Multi-Party Democracy (MMD) with regard to an issue they all knew was the most burning one in the entire Zambia.
It was clear forces represented or acting through MMD national secretary Katele Kalumba and chief government spokesman Mike Mulongoti were anxious to quell any succession debates for their own advantage.
It cannot have escaped the notice of MMD aspirants for the top job that Vice-President Rupiah Bwezani Banda may have stolen a march on them by his handling of the emergency so far.
Though the Zambian constitution decrees he is in an acting capacity until elections of a new President are held in three months, that breathing space gives Banda vital advantage if, as is expected, he throws his hat in the ring.
Ironically this is something which worries MMD "true blue" (as the party hard-core like to fashion themselves) because Banda has no real record or history in the MMD. Though he has repeatedly campaigned for the party in by-elections, he is not a member of the party's executive or any nationally significant structure of the party.
Native province
Banda's political connections came through founding President Kenneth Kaunda and he has always been a leading member of Kaunda's independence party, UNIP. His appointment as VP was interpreted as a reward from Mwanawasa for the votes the latter got from Banda's (and Kaunda's) native Eastern province.
Despite being due to leave office for the last time in 2011, Mwanawasa never made provisions for a successor. Succession battles were therefore raging within the MMD even before his hospitalisation and death. First Lady Maureen Kakubo Mwanawasa, a pushy presence in Zambian public life, had herself once expressed interest, though it was not quite certain she was serious or wanted to deflect others she was opposed to.
At any rate her ambitions were opposed by MMD's executive committee member from Eastern Province, Lameck Mangani. Mangani's intervention was read as part of the intrigues favouring Banda's eventual accession.
As early as February 2008, four other ministers had signalled their interest. At the time, Mwanawasa threatened that ministers prematurely campaigning risked dismissal.
To quell internal feuds, a compromise candidate could quite possibly come into play. One could be Willa Mun'gomba, a former African Development Bank President (1980-85). Despite impeccable credentials, he lacks grassroots political connections.
He does, however, enjoy the backing of civil society and religious groups because of his lead in drafting the Constitutional Review Commission currently under review by a national conference.
Medical history
Two other possible compromise candidates are Stanley Bwalya Chiti, a businessman and former Member of Parliament, and Sebastian Kopulande, one of Mwanawasa's former advisors.
As for the main opposition leader Michael Sata, he had memorably capitalised on Mwanawasa's medical history in the 2006 election, then he suffered a heart attack himself earlier this year. The uncertainty in his party is further compounded by former President Frederick Chiluba, who joined Sata's party in 2006 and has already caused intra-party dissension.
The alternative opposition UPND (United Party for National Development) is equally divided. Whereas one group within the party wants to join forces with the MMD, party leader Haikande Hichilema is opposed.
Thus, on all sides of the political divide, intense bickering can be expected among the possible contenders for the presidency. All political parties remain fragmented, impeding their potential to benefit from the others' internal troubles.
Despite all that, Zambian political stability has remained a patented thing in a region where neighbouring Zimbabwe, for one, has been threatening to implode.
As chairman of the Southern African Development Community, Mwanawasa had been unusually outspoken about developments there. For now, all eyes are on whether whoever takes over in Zambia will maintain the country's tradition of stability.
Gitau Warigi writes for Sunday Nation
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